I’m still looking at Doctor Strange as the “par for the course” performance for MCU solo hero origin stories based on less-well-known characters, and that Shang-Chi might best it even during deeply compromised circumstances is a hell of a thing. Speaking of, just because those MCU origin stories nabbed $700 million in 2018 and $426 million in 2019 doesn’t mean Shang-Chi would have otherwise pulled similar grosses.Ĭonsidering A Quiet Place part II ($160 million) and F9 ($173 million) earned arguably 85% of what they otherwise would have in normal times, a similar scenario would have given Shang-Chi as much as $270 million domestic (above Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s $259 million gross in 2014) in “normal” times. I’m guessing if it’s close enough that Disney will keep it in theaters long enough to pass Doctor Strange, but I’m also guessing that pre-release heat from Eternals (November 6) will give it a slight boost as we saw with Black Panther (prior to Avengers: Infinity War) and Captain Marvel (prior to Avengers: Endgame). If it ends up closer to $235 million, then it’ll pass the unadjusted likes of Logan ($227 million in 2017), Doctor Strange ($232 million in 2016), X-Men: Days of Future Past ($233 million in 2014) and X-Men: The Last Stand ($234 million in 2006). That’ll put it over the likes of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($203 million in 2014), Thor: The Dark World ($206 million in 2013), X2 ($214 million in 2003), Venom ($214 million in 2018), Ant-Man and the Wasp ($216 million in 2018). Presuming it doesn’t get clobbered by the quadruple whammy of Venom 2 (October 1), No Time to Die (October 8), Halloween Kills (October 15) and Dune (October 22), it’s looking at a domestic finish of $225-235 million. It’s also passed The Incredible Hulk ($132 million in 2008), Captain America ($176 million in 2011), Ant-Man ($180 million in 2015) and Thor ($181 million in 2011). The martial arts fantasy actioner is already this year’s biggest domestic grosser, having passed Black Widow ($183.5 million) on Friday.